Trump’s Impact on US-NATO Relations

What did Trump say about NATO?

To understand Trump’s impact on US-NATO relations, we must first look at what he said about NATO during his campaign and shortly after his election.

Throughout the campaign, Trump accused European countries of failing to meet NATO’s requirement that members spend at least 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defense. Especially before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, many European nations had reduced their defense spending and were falling short of this commitment. The situation had become so dire that in 2019, French President Emmanuel Macron went so far as to claim that NATO was experiencing "brain death."

Trump didn’t let up on his criticism and even implied that if the situation didn’t improve, the United States might withdraw from NATO.

Table 1: Displays the defense spending of NATO member countries as a percentage of GDP from 2014 to 2024.

European countries, which had long ignored the 2% defense spending rule, were reminded of it following Russia’s attempt to invade Ukraine. According to NATO data, by 2024, 24 member states are now meeting the 2% spending target (Slovakia is exactly at 2%).

Trump is elected—what now?

After Trump’s election, the world began to wonder how much of his NATO rhetoric he would actually turn into policy, since the actions taken by the United States could directly influence the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Although many European leaders stated that they would continue to support Ukraine regardless of Trump’s decisions, this support alone might not be enough. According to a study by Germany’s Kiel Institute, if U.S. aid to Kyiv is fully withdrawn under a Trump administration, the value of weapons supplied to Ukraine could fall from €59 billion to €34 billion.

Table 2:

Over the past two years, documents prepared by Trump’s team have mentioned the need for a “radical redirection” of the alliance, referring to NATO as “idle.” They also discuss the possibility of a two-tier alliance structure where members that meet the defense spending requirement would receive more favorable security guarantees from the U.S. To prevent such drastic changes, attention is now focused on the relationship between Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

The Mark Rutte–Donald Trump Relationship

Trump gave a positive message by holding his first high-level international meeting post-election with newly appointed NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. In this meeting, a wide range of important issues were discussed, including the 2% contribution rule, relations with Russia, China, and North Korea.

From what we know from past experiences and various sources, Rutte and Trump have a good relationship, and Rutte knows how to influence Trump. During his time as Dutch Prime Minister, Rutte’s meetings with Trump were generally positive. Moving forward, Rutte will need to handle his relationship with Trump very carefully.

Europe’s Decision

Germany has reached the 2% GDP spending goal for the first time since the end of the Cold War, and France has also met the requirement. One of the first steps of the new government to be formed through the coalition between the CDU and SPD will be to increase the defense budget. The UK aims to reach 2.5% as soon as possible. Meanwhile, French President Macron says that the 3.5% target is not unattainable. The European Union, on the other hand, believes it may be able to implement a defense spending plan reaching up to 800 billion dollars. Many countries bordering the conflict zone—such as Estonia, Finland, Romania, Hungary, and Poland—have already increased their defense budgets. NATO data shows Poland is close to reaching a 5% spending rate.

According to the Financial Times, European sources claim that Trump wants all European nations to aim for 5% in defense spending. While this is a difficult target to achieve, there is talk of raising expenditures to around 3% or 3.5%. For European countries already struggling with economic problems, this is one of the toughest decisions they will face.

Spain, with support from tourism and skilled immigration, is entering a relatively stable economic period compared to others. Therefore, it may change its status as the NATO country with the lowest defense spending in 2024 by the year 2025. This could increase the number of nations responding positively to Trump’s demands, potentially strengthening US-NATO relations. However, Spain has stated that it could reach the 2% spending target by 2029. So, Spain is moving forward modestly and without haste.

Conclusion

Ending the Russia-Ukraine war is likely to be one of the top priorities for a Trump administration, as well as the tariff issue. One of Trump’s possible strategies could be to increase NATO’s military spending capacity to intimidate Putin. In addition, Trump’s team claims that the burden of global security is being carried by the United States. Therefore, an increase in defense budgets by European countries could help reduce the security burden that the U.S. claims to bear.

As we look ahead to uncertain developments, the steps that European countries take regarding their defense budgets will likely play a crucial role in shaping Trump’s decisions and the future of US-NATO relations.